The Art and Science of Prediction
by Philip E. Tetlock
Recommended by 5 notable people, including Michael Mauboussin and Preston Pysh
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See customer reviews on Amazon →Superforecasting examines the traits and methods of highly accurate forecasters, linking them to cognitive biases and techniques like belief updating. It outlines an approach to probabilistic thinking, drawing on examples from forecasting tournaments. The density, however, can drag when it lingers on scoring metrics or repeats concepts. Readers wanting a light, prescriptive manual may bounce, but those who persist gain a sharper lens on uncertainty.
This summary and audience guidance are AI-generated from the book's description and its recommendation history, last updated May 2026. Recommendations, quotes and sources elsewhere on this page come from published material and are not generated.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply...
Difficulty:hard
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View available editions on AmazonWhy recommended
Recommended by 11 sources and appears in Most Recommended Books, Finance, and Psychology.
People and public figures who have recommended this book.
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Consider The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse by Charlie Mackesy. Recommended by 8 sources.
“Soft-spoken, heavily illustrated fable built from short dialogues and watercolor sketches. Each spread pairs a spare line of text with a loose drawing, so the pleasure is visual and aphoristic rather than narrative; readers collect felt-true sentences more than plot. Most useful when you want quick consolations, a prompt for conversation with a child, or a pause during a rough day. Limiting if you want sustained argument, concrete advice, or tightly plotted storytelling: the repetition of gentleness can feel sentimental or thin after a while.”
Each recommendation is collected from a public source — interviews, articles, or curated lists — and linked to its original URL. Books with many verifiable recommendations from respected people rank higher.
