Perfectly Confident
How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely
by Don A Moore
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“7/ Decision makers should strive to improve their calibration, the alignment between their subjective probabilities and the objective outcome. @donandrewmoore has a great book on this. You get better with practice and feedback. | I read an average of one book a week plus I spend a lot of time finding out what to read next. I?ve chosen these books as my best reads this year (both science fiction and nonfiction). #themedicalfuturist #digitalhealth #future #healthcare #Technology, #book #reading #read | I read an average of one book a week plus I spend a lot of time finding out what to read next. I’ve chosen these books as my best reads this year (both science fiction and nonfiction). #themedicalfuturist #digitalhealth #future #healthcare #Technology, #book #reading #read | In every decision you make and every goal you set, there are two easy ways to fail: having too little confidence and having too much. As a Berkeley psychologist, Don Moore has spent his career studying how to find the sweet spot, and his book is full of datadriven guidance for making more accurate assessments of your abilities and opportunities.”
Source →Recommended by 3 notable people, including Adam Grant and Michael Mauboussin
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Should I read this?
Recommended by 4 sources and appears in Most Recommended Books, Psychology, and Social Sciences.
An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley?s Haas School of Business considers how to calibrate examines the importance of being confident, arguing that confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth.A surge of confidence can feel fantastic?offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us cou...
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Why recommended
Recommended by 4 sources and appears in Most Recommended Books, Psychology, and Social Sciences.
Recommended by notable people
People and public figures who have recommended this book.
Recommendation Signals
Recommendation proof is sourced from public posts, interviews, reading lists, and cited references.

Adam Grant
Organizational psychologist; Wharton professor
“7/ Decision makers should strive to improve their calibration, the alignment between their subjective probabilities and the objective outcome. @donandrewmoore has a great book on this. You get better with practice and feedback. | I read an average of one book a week plus I spend a lot of time finding out what to read next. I?ve chosen these books as my best reads this year (both science fiction and nonfiction). #themedicalfuturist #digitalhealth #future #healthcare #Technology, #book #reading #read | I read an average of one book a week plus I spend a lot of time finding out what to read next. I’ve chosen these books as my best reads this year (both science fiction and nonfiction). #themedicalfuturist #digitalhealth #future #healthcare #Technology, #book #reading #read | In every decision you make and every goal you set, there are two easy ways to fail: having too little confidence and having too much. As a Berkeley psychologist, Don Moore has spent his career studying how to find the sweet spot, and his book is full of datadriven guidance for making more accurate assessments of your abilities and opportunities.”
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Not sure if this is the right fit?
Consider The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse by Charlie Mackesy. Recommended by 8 sources.
“Soft-spoken, heavily illustrated fable built from short dialogues and watercolor sketches. Each spread pairs a spare line of text with a loose drawing, so the pleasure is visual and aphoristic rather than narrative; readers collect felt-true sentences more than plot. Most useful when you want quick consolations, a prompt for conversation with a child, or a pause during a rough day. Limiting if you want sustained argument, concrete advice, or tightly plotted storytelling: the repetition of gentleness can feel sentimental or thin after a while.”
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Each recommendation is collected from a public source — interviews, articles, or curated lists — and linked to its original URL. Books with many verifiable recommendations from respected people rank higher.
Perfectly Confident
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